They’re nothing new, but they may be a growing threat. Plus, the story of the 2026 campaign through political ads in Still ...

I don’t mean to suggest that FiveThirtyEight invented the concept of systematic polling error, but the FiveThirtyEight/Silver ...

Mr. Irrelevant” has the NFL’s highest QBERT rating so far this season. It’s time to stop holding his draft position against ...

This is the landing page the FLIPR 1 2026 Senate forecast. 2 This page is designed to be viewed on the web rather than in our ...

Can Democrats still win the Senate if the polls overestimate them? And how ugly could the map get for Republicans if the ...

Below, you’ll find our forecast for each 2026 gubernatorial race, along with how our numbers have changed over time and a chart showing which party will govern more Americans after the midterms.4 ...

Below, you’ll find our forecast for each 2026 House race, along with how our numbers have changed over time and which states are likeliest to decide control of the chamber. Below, you’ll find our ...

You’ve heard a lot about Michigan. But Democrats may have bigger problems in states where voters don’t trust their governance ...

Republicans might hold on to one or two of the toss-up Senate races, but the tide will be too strong to resist elsewhere. At ...