Analyses of survey data may be confounded if people use response scales differently. We formalize and generalize the theory behind using “calibration questions,” such as vignettes, to correct for ...

To fill these gaps, beneficiaries must actively choose among several insurance options—enrolling in Medicare Advantage, adding private supplemental insurance to traditional Medicare, or, for those ...

The employment rate for men declines by 18 percentage points between ages 51 and 61. If that decline were cut in half, the authors calculate that the average cognitive score would increase by about ...

The NBER Board of Directors appointed 35 Research Associates at its September 2026 meeting. Research Associates must be tenured faculty members at North American colleges or universities; their ...

The impact of AI on the employment prospects of recent college graduates is hotly debated with no consensus on the magnitude of impacts nor even the timing of those potential impacts. Using CPS ...

Many public policies aim to support (or change the behavior of) a specific, targeted sub-group of the population. To measure the causal impacts of such policies, social scientists use ...

Mark Mason, Jack Porter, and Mark Wolfson were elected to the NBER Board of Directors at the Board’s September 28 meeting.

This paper examines the revenue and migration impact of the 2026 California Billionaire Tax Act, a one-time 5 percent tax on the worldwide net worth of individuals exceeding $1 billion. Using data ...

Market power may arise not only from firms, but also from individual salespeople who can exploit informational advantages over consumers. We explore this phenomenon in the mortgage market by examining ...

China launched a nationwide, rate-based carbon market in 2021. Covering the world’s top CO2 emitter, compliance depends on the intensity of carbon emissions rather than an absolute cap. We draw on the ...

Foreign aid has become a melting pot of motivations and policies, where differently-motivated actors often converge on recommended policies while the similarly-motivated diverge. Breaking down the ...

Export controls restrict trade to limit adversaries’ access to goods that contribute to military capability, but their effectiveness depends on how trade and production adjust across countries. We ...