To fill these gaps, beneficiaries must actively choose among several insurance options—enrolling in Medicare Advantage, adding private supplemental insurance to traditional Medicare, or, for those ...
The employment rate for men declines by 18 percentage points between ages 51 and 61. If that decline were cut in half, the authors calculate that the average cognitive score would increase by about ...
Analyses of survey data may be confounded if people use response scales differently. We formalize and generalize the theory behind using “calibration questions,” such as vignettes, to correct for ...
The NBER Board of Directors appointed 35 Research Associates at its September 2026 meeting. Research Associates must be tenured faculty members at North American colleges or universities; their ...
This paper provides both a conceptual framework for decomposing a country's gross exports into value-added components by source and a new bilateral database on value-added trade. Our parsimonious ...
New AI tools have the potential to change the way workers perform and learn, but little is known about their impacts on the job. In this paper, we study the staggered introduction of a generative ...
How do the productivity effects of AI evolve across successive generations of tools, and to what extent do task-level gains ultimately translate into final output? We study these questions in the ...
Here Today, Gone Tomorrow? Toward an Understanding of Fade-out in Early Childhood Education Programs
An unsettling stylized fact is that decorated early childhood education programs improve cognitive skills in the short-term, but lose their efficacy after a few years. We implement a field experiment ...
The impact of AI on the employment prospects of recent college graduates is hotly debated with no consensus on the magnitude of impacts nor even the timing of those potential impacts. Using CPS ...
We develop a new method of quantifying the impact of policy announcements on investment rates that makes use of stock market data. By estimating the effect of U.S.-China tariff announcements on ...
This paper examines the decentralization of employment using zip code data on employment by industry. Most American cities are decentralized on average less than 16 percent of employment in ...
Many public policies aim to support (or change the behavior of) a specific, targeted sub-group of the population. To measure the causal impacts of such policies, social scientists use ...
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