Economists now, on average, predict inflation will be 2.6 per cent this year, up from 2.2 per cent before the election, according to forecast aggregator Consensus Economics, due to the risk that Trump’s biggest policy pledges on immigration, tariffs and tax cuts, and cutting red tape could raise the cost of living.
And almost as expensive due to years of cash flowing in to escape the inflation in neighbouring countries such as Argentina. What’s nicer than an ocean-view apartment to preserve your wealth in real terms?
Reports of the demise of US inflation have been greatly exaggerated. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter discuss the continuing high numbers and what the Fed might do about it this year. Also they go long Ohio State and short New Year’s resolutions.
ECB cuts the deposit rate by a quarter point to 2.75 per cent as expected and offers little shift in tone from December as it continues to move policy away from restrictive territory
After experience of Biden administration, fighting price rises likely to be political priority over targeting economic growth
Yields down, stocks up. After government bonds sold off sharply the week before, buyers were back after favourable inflation prints calmed investors’ nerves in the US and UK in the past week. As far as returning to normal it might be as close as we are going to get for some time.
The Fed said the job market is “solid,” and noted that the unemployment rate “has stabilized at a low level in recent months.”
The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at its January meeting following three consecutive rate cuts amid uncertainty over inflation and economic conditions.
Fiscal policy and monetary policy are always vying for top spot on the market’s list of concerns. For now, there is little to see at the Fed. What the market needs is clarity on the fiscal front.
Enter Donald Trump. The new US president could call on Opec. He can pledge to ratchet up oil sanctions on Russia to the point where their impact becomes more acute: these would target not only producers, but refiners, ports, insurers and the shadow fleet. He can also apply more political pressure on China, India and Turkey to support compliance.
After three cuts at the end of last year, Federal Reserve officials paused rate moves as they weigh a solid economy and rising inflation risks. Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, said the central bank was not on a “pre-set course.
The central bank’s decision to pause at its first meeting of 2025 followed a series of cuts that began in September to account for progress already made on getting inflation down. Over the course of three meetings, the Fed lowered rates by a full percentage point to a range of 4.25 percent to 4.5 percent, which was maintained on Wednesday.