Top economist David Rosenberg sees a "very significant" US recession once fiscal stimulus dries up and AI-related capex starts to wane.

While the Fed is projecting growth, four key threats could derail the economy in 2026: policy-driven inflation, "stagflation lite," consumer exhaustion and a potential artificial intelligence bubble. While these "aren't necessarily recession triggers on their own, they could compound into something more serious if they collide," McInnis says.

Recession odds rose in prediction markets as the Iran conflict added new pressure to the United States economy.

With the stock market tumbling, consumer confidence skidding and U.S. companies ramping up layoffs, it may look like the nation is hurtling toward a recession amid President Donald Trump’s widening global trade war and federal job cuts. It isn’t – yet.