Traders use Polymarket to predict outcomes, but the platform itself doesn't predict future events. It measures how the crowd currently estimates probability based on available information, similar to ...

New research uncovers why an increase in probability feels riskier than a decrease. The research falls under the realm of subjective probability, also known as likelihood or risk. While past research ...

Basel II adopting banks estimate and validate long-run probability of default (LRPD) for each of their internal risk ratings. In this study, we examine alternative methodologies in estimating and ...

Probability estimates are constantly changing. A 20 per cent chance of rain suddenly goes to 30 per cent and we start thinking about packing an umbrella. But how differently do we react when a ...

Please provide your email address to receive an email when new articles are posted on . In a recent survey study, nearly 80% of physicians overestimated the probability of successful patient outcomes ...